California Assembly 27 looks close on paper, but turnout is the whole story. We show how low turnout makes GOTV powerful — and why this one may be a two-cycle project.
Step by stepThe written version
1
Start with the turnout environment
Across California's assembly districts, turnout runs unusually low. That's the opening — when fewer people vote, GOTV carries more weight.
2
Use turnout to size the race
AD27 drew about 140,000 voters in the 2024 general but only ~90,000 in the 2022 off-year. The universe is large, but the number of people who actually decide the race is closer to a small congressional district.
3
Expect most 'active' voters to sit out
Even with ~150,000 in the active voter universe, only about 90,000 are likely to turn out. Because that universe is built from people who voted in at least two of 2018, 2022, and 2024, two of every three prior voters you meet may not show up.
4
Plan for expensive persuasion
Uncertain turnout means heavy segmenting and supporter ID. Just reaching independents with mail, digital, and texts could run about $150K — and a good rule of thumb is to double the estimate.
5
Treat it as long-term development
The ideal candidate here has already won a smaller office, raised money, and built an organization — maybe run once before. If the time and money to do that aren't there, the move is to change the timeline, not force a win.
6
Think in cycles, not one election
It's tempting to treat every race as the most important one right now. For a district like this, the stronger play is often to lay groundwork now and aim to win in two years.
7
Read closeness against real effort
The dashboard separates surface-level closeness from the work required. Some districts look unwinnable but are a few extra weeks of doors away; this one looks close but may take an extra cycle of organizing and turnout.
Read the full transcript
0:00 Alright, so taking a look at California, just a bunch of different districts in the state assembly statewide and trying to find a good strategy to win one of these things.
0:13 If you look at, some of the other states that we've looked at where they've had 2-3 times more districts for states that are 2-3 times smaller, in population size.
0:22 So comparing them, 27 for some reason the turnout here, the estimated turnout is just abysmal. You know 60 and 50 are pretty much par for the course.
0:35 There's a couple forties in here. And so that to me is more of an opportunity. Actually, if less people are showing up to vote, then GOTV becomes more powerful.
0:45 Alright, so here's 27 on ballot pdf. The general election in 2024, you had about 140,000 people versus the 90,000 in 2022 in that off of off election year.
0:59 It has to be turned out 90,000 registered voters, 200,000. That's like a small congressional district. So and again, this is this is what we're talking about.
1:08 Despite the fact that there's 150,000 people listed in our active voter universe, only 90 actually are going to come out in this upcoming ridiculous.
1:20 So, that active voter universe comes from an average of the 2024 voters, 2022 and 2018 voters, folks who voted at least two in any of them.
1:32 That means two out of three people that you run into who have voted are just not going to show up this election.
1:40 That's a lot of time and a lot of money. I mean, it is, right? The race is also quite large.
1:47 And so, you know, I'm talking about an opportunity here, but it's definitely not low-hanging fruit. You know, GOTV is work.
1:55 You spend the entire election trying to segment out voters, ID supporters, etc. And we are spending most of your time talking to those folks who we think are gonna turn out in this upcoming election.
2:10 And so you'd be really hard pressed to do all of that, right to talk to these 72,000 people here. Right.
2:17 There's no way to tell who comes out. In order to send them a couple pieces of mail and do some targeting, you know, with your digital to send some texts, et cetera, you're looking at spending 150K here, just talking to independence.
2:33 I usually just double this number, and that's like a good rule of thumb. I see the path to victory, but it's an expensive one.
2:41 In fact, I think long-term development is one of the ways I would define this district. You know, when we were talking about our ideal candidate, it's somebody who's elected to a smaller position, it's somebody who's raised a lot of money and has an organization, maybe they've run in the past and has
2:58 been running for another year. I actually get this question asked a lot. What do I do if that isn't true?
3:04 If the map doesn't add up, if I don't have the time in the money to build the organization needed to get me across the finish line.
3:11 There's really one thing you can do and that is move the goalposts. I think we are really used to every election is the most important race.
3:22 2028 doesn't really matter because it's not here yet. There are very few organizations that are really looking at long-term development of these districts.
3:30 There's very low appetite but it really is a mindset shift that I think we need to make. Well, to bring it all home, I think there's a few things that you have bought up here that are really fascinating to me.
3:42 You know, we have this estimated turnout number, which is very low for this district and the challenges that creates for somebody who's running.
3:51 There is a good chance that the most effective way for you to win the seat, if you are the minority party, is that you aren't necessarily looking at it from this race, but you're looking at it from a race and winning in two years.
4:03 or for but you're putting in the groundwork today and you know maybe there are some cost effective ways to put in that groundwork.
4:12 You know what it's really interesting how this dashboard we've put together really allows you to pull out these districts. I think if you just look at the percentage you can say these are really close.
4:25 In fact if you look at the primary it got really really close. Yeah, you know, previously we looked at a few districts that it was almost the opposite of this, where percentage wise you think this is not going to be easy to overcome.
4:41 There's no way I'm going to win this, but then when you look at the numbers, you realize that, oh, that's a couple weeks extra of knocking doors.
4:49 This is the exact opposite, where the race looks close. You realize that this is an extra election cycle of door knocking it's and so it's really interesting to see that and if you want to see one of these for your district head on over to bootstrap office, scroll down and fill this out, Ryan and I will
5:13 get an email and we'll contact you super shortly. Super shortly. Yeah, Check it out!