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03·Mississippi · pickup

Can you win a State House seat in 100 hours?

Some Mississippi districts are so small that the math changes completely. We walk a potential pickup where a base near 2,100 and a win number around 2,400 puts it inside 100 hours of work.

Step by step The written version
  1. 1
    Look for pickups, not even races

    Scanning Mississippi's state house districts, there are no truly even races — but several lean, and a couple of Dem-held seats are worth a look.

  2. 2
    Check registration and turnout

    The registered-voter counts here are strikingly small and turnout is low. Verified against the source, that's real — and it makes these races unusually winnable.

  3. 3
    Size the win number

    With a small base on both sides and a decent middle, the win number is small too. For a Republican here, that's roughly a 2,100 base against a win number near 2,400.

  4. 4
    Map doors to the calendar

    January through May is organization-building — about 2,000 people, or ~50 hours of door knocking, a couple of weeks' work. Leading with texts to gauge voters can cut that in half.

  5. 5
    Work the independents

    June through September leaves roughly 76 hours of door knocking to reach the independent middle — very doable in a district this size. Text first, then events, then doors.

  6. 6
    Pick a candidate who will work

    This isn't won on a slogan. In a district this small a committed candidate can out-work the opponent and steal the seat — the whole requirement is a willingness to knock doors.

  7. 7
    Run a simple field plan

    Where a seat is effectively uncontested, the opening is real: find a candidate willing to knock, send a few texts, hold a few events to build the organization, then canvass — often in under 100 hours of direct effort.

Read the full transcript
0:00 Alright, so we're using this tool we've been working on to take a look at some of the Mississippi state representative districts. 0:10 I'm hoping to check out some pickups. There are no even races in Mississippi. lean, however. Okay, we got two held by Dems. 0:19 These registered voter counts are crazy small. turnout is low. We checked before this, recording and the seams accurate. I was a little surprised. 0:30 You know, but this is the kind of race you feel, especially if it's close like this, that I feel like I could I could win with a song. 0:36 There's a really small base on both sides and a pretty decently sized middle. You know, the race is small, which means the turnout is small, means your wind number is small. 0:47 So if you're a Republican running this race, you kind of have a base of 2100 people of a wind number, basically, let's called 2400. 0:55 So it's really getting your people out and can you get a slice of that unidentified independent? Yeah, basically, that's pretty much it. 1:03 All campaigns follow roughly the same trajectory. Right, January, May, you're looking at building out your organization and you've got about two K people to do that, which is about 50 hours of door knocking. 1:16 That's a couple weeks. Obviously, I'd start with like a text first just to gauge them. You could probably cut that number and a half. 1:24 The independence, right? You have June, July, August, September to put out 76 hours of door knocking here. That's wildly doable. 1:36 So if you start to design your avatar of a winning candidate, somebody who's going to be willing to put it in the work, but it's absolutely an worthwhile investment of their time because it is certainly achievable when you're looking at numbers. 1:50 Yeah, I said you could win it with a song, but that's obviously hyperbole. You could win it by working. You could outwork your opponent in a race this size and steal it out from London. 1:59 And you know, maybe there's something I'm missing, but it looks Democrat-controlled without a Republican running in it since it's been redistricted. 2:07 Again, I know nothing about the Republican organization in this area, but it seems to me like if you found somebody who would be willing to knock doors. 2:16 You send a few texts, you engage people, you do a few events to build an organization and then you start knocking on these doors, right? 2:24 Well less than a hundred hours. So these are kind of the interesting extractions that you're able to make just looking at this high level data. 2:31 It's always a shocking thing and I promise myself I will not continue to be shocked about it but I always aim about how few registered voters and then of those that actually show up To vote. 2:44 And if you want to see one of these for your district, head on over to Boothstrap Office, scroll down and fill this out, Ryan and I will get an email and we'll contact you super shortly. 2:57 super shortly
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Campaign strategy in Mississippi HD22
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